Mr. Trump's War

Thanks to the incompetence we have come to expect from the Trump-Vance-Hegseth gang, the United States has become entangled in yet another unnecessary war. (I wonder what George W. Bush thinks about this conflict, especially the suggestion that U.S. ground troops could be deployed. That must stir unpleasant memories of the disastrous Iraq War over which he presided.)

For Donald Trump, the new war has already produced a victory of sorts: it has knocked the Epstein scandal out of the headlines. This happens at an especially propitious time for Trump, given speculation that Epstein-related news about the president might soon become dramatically worse.

Once he decided a war would be convenient, Trump turned to his friend Benjamin Netanyahu, and he found the Israeli prime minister ready and willing — as usual — to go to war, joining his American sidekick. Muslim Iran seemed an appealing target, overmatched against the combined military muscle of the United States and Israel.

So, bombs and missiles flew, most of them hitting Iranian targets, but combat has not been as one-sided as the U.S.-Israel partners might have hoped. American soldiers have been killed, Arab nations perceived as friendly toward the United States have been attacked by Iran, and the global economy has been shaken by uncertainty about the availability of oil.

Waging war is not simple. It does not adhere to a predetermined schedule; purportedly “quick wars” drag on indefinitely. Few countries can enjoy the luxury of being noncombatant bystanders; even secondary players — such as Russia and Ukraine in this case — can be profoundly affected. This war has already disrupted the flow of oil, especially though the Strait of Hormuz. The price-per-barrel will rise, perhaps significantly, depending on the war’s length and aftermath. That would generate inflationary pressure widely, but for Russia it could be a lifeline. The Russian economy, which has been battered by sanctions and the costs of its war against Ukraine, could be at least partly resuscitated by increased oil income.

Arguably more important than the price of oil is the effect of the Iran War on American supplies of weaponry. For a considerable time, the United States has been emptying its arsenal faster than replacements have been manufactured. In the first few days of this new war, the process accelerated. This can also benefit Russia, because if supplies are not replenished and delivery of American tools of war to Ukraine is jeopardized, the course of that war, which has recently been shifting in Ukraine’s favor, could be changed.

Mr. Trump’s war may prove to be a monstrous whirlpool, sucking in new participants who are distant from the original battlegrounds. Beginning a war is easy. Ending one requires good judgment and an appreciation of peace, qualities hard to find at the upper levels of the current U.S. government.

Philip Seib is Professor Emeritus of Journalism and Public Diplomacy at the University of Southern California.